Sometime towards the tail end of campaigns to succeed the late president Daniel arap Moi, unlikely diehard KANU supporters decamped to the the National Rainbow Coalition (NARC) in droves.
At the time (2002), Moi, the great political giraffe had chosen Uhuru Kenyatta as his successor setting in motion a series of events that eventually determined who his successor would be.
Among the political giants who many never expected to defect from KANU were, the late Prof George Saitoti, Kipruto arap Kirwa, Moody Awori, Kalonzo Musyoka, Noah Wekesa and others.
Among those who decamped, perhaps the most notable was Kipruto arap Kirwa because being a Kalenjin, it was viewed as the highest betrayal to Moi and his community.
Very few Kalenjins dared to defect but Kirwa did.
As if 2002 is re-enacting itself, the first notable Kalenjin leader to defect from a coalition led by a leader from the community is none other than Kipruto arap Kirwa.
Now as it were in 2002, one Musalia Mudavadi has gone against the grain and refused to heed his Luhya community.
In 2002, Mudavadi shocked everyone when amidst a strong Luhya euphoria to join NARC, the boy from Mululu stuck with KANU like a leech on a warm body.
Mudavadi was to be rewarded with a Vice-President post few months to the election.
KANU was resoundingly defeated by NARC and Mudavadi and like-minded politicians who failed to read the signs of time ended up losing badly in the polls, Mudavadi being humiliated by a hitherto unknown political rookie by the name Moses Akaranga.
Political pundits have likened this year election to 2002 political tsunami, whereby a need to change a regime after many years of KANU rule became so overwhelming, some powerful Moi confidants like the late Joseph Kamotho commented, “Even dogs would have been elected so long as they stood on NARC ticket,”.
Although Moi succession was happening at a time when multiparty democracy was setting the pace on political dynamics, Uhuru succession is happening when constitutional order, good governance, economic change and rule of law are determinant factors on which side of the political divide will generate the necessary euphoria to attract millions of votes and win the Presidency.
Before Raila Odinga’s official entry into the presidential race, Deputy President, Dr William Ruto had ample time to criss-cross the length and breadth of this country campaigning for his bid.
This premature campaign by Ruto created irreparable wedge between him and President Uhuru Kenyatta who in efforts to appease the opposition had seen it wise to make peace with his earstwhile political nemesis, Raila Odinga.
Clever Ruto wrongly or rightly sensed his journey to become president was in jeopardy and decided to defy his boss, making him the second DP after the late Jaramogi Oginga to do so.
Unlike Jaramogi, Ruto knew he was insulated by the Constitution and hastily mounted a serious political mobilization, especially in Uhuru’s Mt Kenya region.
Ruto knew the only way to gain political foothold in the Mountain and other regions was to create objects of hatred and like NARC did to Moi, KANU and Uhuru, the DP moved with speed to disparage Uhuru, Jubilee party, Raila and the economy.
In order to fire up the masses, Ruto invented the Hustler versus Dynasty slogan and the Bottom-up economic development model, which resonated well with poor masses and he sure was confident he was headed straight up to win this year’s presidential election-or so he thought.
By the time Raila Odinga was declaring his candidacy for President, few would have thought the political enigma who Ruto and company has branded Uhuru’s project would come close to challenging Ruto’s supremacy as the frontrunner for the seat on the hill.
Indeed, many political leaders especially from the ruling Jubilee party followed Ruto, majority from Mt Kenya region.
Fast forward. What many thought Raila would’t manage to do has happened.
As I write, this foremost political colossus is head to head with Ruto in the race for the Presidency.
It should be remembered that Raila Odinga was very instrumental on who became the president in 2002 succession race, even coining the famous, “Kibaki Tosha” slogan that changed the political equation and propelled the late Mwai Kibaki to power.
Now and then, the clock has moved full circle and Raila is once again in the centre stage, now as a serious presidential candidate and not a kingmaker.
Will the doyen of politics achieve his ambition to rule Kenya or will the jinx that has dogged his efforts since he begun competing for presidency curtail his mission?
Pitted against Ruto, an uncanny picture begins to emerge that both are as different as night and day.
During Moi succession, Ruto, Moi blue-eyed lad stuck with the old man and Uhuru Kenyatta to be vanquished by Raila and Kibaki’s political juggernaut.
Raila has cleverly and strategically moved to systematically reclaim his political strongholds from Ruto and currently only Kalenjin nation and Mt Kenya region where he has extra work to do in order to reduce Ruto’s influence and gain the much needed votes to win the presidency.
This is why out of the blue and to everyone’s surprise, Raila’s decision to nominate Martha Karua, another indomitable politician, fighter for democracy, human rights, constitutional order and rule of the law has shaken the entire political environment, forcing Ruto to go back to the drawing board.
RaRua combination is equivalent to NARC and KANU political duel and the faster Ruto realises this fact the better for him to deal with a political ‘monster’ that has just emerged from the ashes like a phynix.
Just like in 2002 when Uhuru’s victory was in everyone’s lips until Raila and company mobilised a political ‘Monster’ called Rainbow Coalition (NARC), RaRua ticket/ Azimio Alliance is that monster reincarnate.
Apologists for Kenya Kwanza Alliance might not agree with my views but from where I sit, there are many signs that bring this similarity into focus.
The political climate is one such sign, followed by the cast, which comprises foremost political giants like, Prof Kivutha Kibwana, Charity Ngilu, Mikhisa Kituyi, Noah Wekesa, Maoka Maore, Kalonzo Musyoka, Kiraitu Murungi, Mpuru Aburi and other politicians with instincts to decipher where the wind of change is blowing.
As if to put the icing on the cake, the feature of last minute defections appear to be triggered by the move by UDA Vice-Chairman, Kipruto arap Kirwa to join what he has described as,” The winning Team”.
Nothing is far from the truth, Raila has effectively surrounded the Kenya Kwanza troops and confined them to North-Rift Valley and Mt Kenya, a situation that is being made even worse by the entry of Martha Karua who hails from the mountain.
To say Karua’s nomination as Raila’s running mate has disorganised UDA and Kenya Kwanza Alliance is an understatement.
Not only has Karua’s nomination starred Mt Kenya but unlike Ruto’s nominee, Rigathi Gachagua, she has excited the whole country and earned Raila and Azimio Alliance many political bonga points.
That as it may, two months in politics is enough for an alliance like Kenya Kwanza to re-strategize and perhaps reclaim some lost ground but my honest opinion is Ruto hasn’t seen anything yet.
Because history appears to be repeating itself, one can predict that naturally the impending defections from Kenya Kwanza Alliance to Azimio Alliance so close to a hotly contested election will trigger an exodus, which coupled with euphoria might result in landslide victory for Raila like happened during the Kibaki Tosha time.
Although there are those who might argue differently and even claim this election is close to call and a run off is inevitable, I beg to differ.
Unless someone proves to me that when Moses removed the children of Israel from Egypt, there were some who were left behind for any reason, I will stick to my views for the time being.
After all, the answer and prove of what I am writing about is unfolding right in front of everyone’s eyes each passing day.
Kaunda wa Muchunku
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