Economic deteroriation is due to known reasons.
For instance, in the 90s the downturn of our economy was due to oversupply of currency folllowing the infamous Goldenberg scandal.
At the time, the dollar was exchanging at around Sh20 meaning our currency was strong against even the other international currencies.
This monumental economic scandal raised the cost of buying the dollar to over Sh30 and the shilling has never recovered.
Taking into account other factors such as declining exports and foreign aid assistance, the economy further detoriated.
The aftermath of this scandal, coupled with an unaccomodative political sector played a big role for intervention by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Older Kenyans will painfully remember the IMF imposed Structural Adjustment Policies, which necessitated mass retrenchments, particulary in the civil service.
To a certain extent the private sector, especially banks which relied heavily on government spending and borrowing took cue and similarly retrenched.
In order to sound humane, both the government and the private sector christened the “sackings” as goldenshake.
If Goldenberg scandal was the trigger of such economic slowdown and repurcussions, similar scandals have occured to date.
The difference between successive economic and past financial scandals is that the former ones involve siphoning of funds that are set aside for development or emergency spending.
Regardless, both stiffle economic production and growth. The outcome is slow growth of the economy followed by lack of jobs, stuggling businesses and diminishing exports.
Moreover, our country is forced into consumerism, whereby imports take a large proportion of foreign exchange earnings.
Therefore our economy has very little savings and investable resources.
Infact if it were not for foreign remmittances, grants and other strategic assistance by some foreign powers, ours would be an intolerable economy.
With balance of trade perpetually skewed against Kenya, the government is forced to bridge budget deficits by borrowing heavily locally and internationally.
This situation has become cyclic such that for our economy to stay afloat, borrowing has become second nature in our annual budgets.
To add salt to the injury, resource wastefulness dries up public coffers after corruption has played its part.
Since governments in Africa are always looking for scapegoat, technocrats do not tire explaining to the citizens that poor economic situation is due to globalization.
In other words, Kenya being a member of the international community, it is not immune to global economic upheavals.
Just like the argument that all countries borrow, so Kenya is affected by crises in the world financial markets, commerce and trade.
This is true to some extent but truth is we are victims of poor economic planning, spending and corruption.
There is no godsend opportunity for poor countries to scapegoat than the current global Coronavirus epidemic.
While such an epidemic can impact negatively on economies, ours is a comedy of absurd because technocrats connive with crooked merchants to shamelessly steal even Covid funds.
If the above factors have left our economy worse in the past, it follows that by the time Coronavirus is brought under control, the shilling may be extremely devalued.
Already the IMF for reasons it has explained has come to rescue our economy from financial and budgetary crisis.
It appears that everytime a financial scandal or global crises such as Corovirus occur, we are left a notch lower in the global economic ratings.
There is no doubt we are headed for severe economic and financial hardships.
Moreover, we are doing so at a time when the monster of political competition is rearing its ugly head.
Kenyans should therefore brace for hard economic times with attendant crises.
This is not scaremongering but the truth of the matter.
Kaunda wa Muchunku
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